Dear Joyce: A new manager came in swinging the ax, immediately replacing three others in sales. My momma didn't raise no stupid children, I'm outta here. Your column has already helped me: Looking for a job has never been so easy -- what did we do 10 years ago? -- P.M.

Dear P.M.: Ten years ago we sweated as the number of recession casualties rose to a stunning 3 million in the first half of the 1990s. In the employment sense, the American workforce is far better off now than then, although it may not seem like it every night on the 6 p.m. news.

Barely a day passes without announcement of widespread layoffs, a clear sign that most people have to pay attention to the possibility of job loss. In a turnabout from the employee-driven job market of recent memory, employers are holding off on interviewing applicants, who, only a few months ago they would have sent a limo to fetch.

But hold on. Perspective prevents panic. Unemployment remains at historic lows. Even if it creeps up from 4 percent to 5 percent, or a million jobs, that's still south of 7 percent in 1993 and 10 percent annualized in 1982.

More good news for many job shoppers: The demographic outlook is employee-friendly. As baby boomers retire and fewer young people enter the job market, and as new job creation continues, the prospects for talented workers are bright for the next 10 years.

One analyst explains: "By 2008, demand for skilled workers will have grown 27 percent since 1988, while the growth in skilled jobs will have outstripped supply by almost double that rate."

After a time, layoff and projection rates become so familiar that they tend to fade into an abstraction. But the big picture of supply and demand helps explain why unemployment hangs low and why jettisoned workers continue to be reabsorbed into new jobs.

Of course, all these numbers are of little comfort when you're one of the people on the pavement. The unhappy fact is America's job market is riddled with structural inequities. Simply stated, the job market has become one of two tiers: the younger, flexible workers with high-demand skills -- and everyone else.

At risk: blue-collar production workers in company towns where sales are down or in plants that can be moved and white-collar workers who are over 50, paid above $150,000, short on computer savvy and lacking in leadership or technical skills. Also shaky: top managers in under-performing divisions and employees who won't work long hours or relocate.

Industries being hit hard include retail and auto parts, while brighter prospects beckon in mortgage banking as interest rates decline, insurance as it takes on broader financial services, education as retiring teachers are replaced, health care as the population ages and, of course, information technology as the world goes on.

How do you know when the bells are about to toll for you? Watch your company's financials, especially the stock price and earnings. You've survived one or more layoffs and the company is still in trouble. Management avoids talking about what's ahead for the company, themselves or you. You're perceived as overpaid or in a department not closely connected to the bottom line.

If your job is threatened, recognize a couple of new twists in today's downturn.

Cherry Picking.
Absent a union contract, the traditional seniority-focused LIFO (last in, first out) layoff protocol is out the corporate window, replaced by best-for-company preferences for "most valuable people" (MVP).

Cheerful Job Losing.
A number of talented 20-something college grads who have known only a robust job market seem to view job loss as just one more bend in the road to success -- and, while under age 40, they may be right.

Preemptive Striking.
Management, fearing for its own safety, now moves quickly after getting even a whiff of subpar numbers or stock decline. In earlier cycles, the workforce was valued as the heart of the company, the last asset to go when the going got tough. The new swiftness to cast off people deepens doubt of credibility about corporate claims of "loyalty." Get used to it.

Next: What you can do to protect yourself in a layoff alert.

Send career questions for possible use in this column to Joyce Lain Kennedy at Box 368, Cardiff, CA 92007, or e-mail her at jlk@sunfeatures.com. Sorry, the volume of mail makes personal replies impossible.

© 2000, Los Angeles Times Syndicate